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Welcome back to Policy, honestly. If you, like me, have roots in the Indian subcontinent, you will know that it has been a volatile couple of weeks in the Kashmir region.

India has blamed Pakistan for the recent deadly attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir, which killed 26 people.

Pakistan denied involvement, but India's military went ahead and attacked targets inside Pakistan, striking what the Indian government called ‘terrorist infrastructure'.

As I write this, Pakistan is vowing to retaliate.

As tensions escalate between South Asia's nuclear-armed neighbours, one thing is clear: the fighting will have far-reaching consequences for people in the region.

In the lead-up to its strikes against Pakistan, India had suspended a crucial resource-sharing policy between the two countries. That’s what we’ll unpack today.

The policy

Pakistan and India haven’t agreed on much since the countries were created by Partition over 77 years ago, but they are signatories to an internationally-lauded example of cooperation since 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). 

The IWT regulates sharing water from the tributaries of the Indus, and it has survived three wars and ever-present political tension. It grants India the use of water from three eastern rivers — Sutlej, Beas and Ravi — while Pakistan was granted most of the three western rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. 

The recent terror attack killing 26 people in Indian-controlled Kashmir has had far-reaching consequences, including on the IWT. Pakistan denies India's allegations that it's behind the attack. However, that did not stop India from suspending the 65-year-old agreement.

The impact

The overwhelming majority of water in the Indus Basin is used for agriculture, and Pakistan is particularly reliant on the IWT as all the rivers’ headways are in India. 

Fazlul Haq, a researcher on the Indus Basin Water Project at Ohio State University, calls the treaty “the cornerstone of Pakistan's agricultural sustainability” as a result.

“India has considerably less to lose compared to Pakistan if the Indus Waters Treaty were suspended,” Haq, who is also a professor of geography at the Government College University in Faisalabad, told me. 

The rivers are crucial for Pakistan’s agricultural centres, the provinces of Sindh and Pubjab, the latter known as the breadbasket of the country. An estimated 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture is reliant on the waters in the IWT alone, supporting major crops like basmati rice, cotton and wheat.

And Pakistan’s economy relies heavily on agriculture — it makes up about a quarter of its economy, while 37% of all workers are employed by the sector, according to the government.

Climate change is already tightening the water supply, as record low snowfall levels have led to falling freshwater — 40% of the Indus Basin relies on snowfall, and in 2023, snowfall was down 23%, according to the latest figures available from the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development. 

“Reduced snow and glacier melt directly translate to decreased river flows, particularly during the crucial irrigation seasons,” said Haq. 

This is creating a new problem. Farmers have been relying on groundwater to compensate for these shortages, depleting water tables, he said. 

In the context of a tightening water supply, it’s perhaps unsurprising then that a statement from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s office likened the suspension to an “act of war”.   

What suspending the IWT could mean

There are a few ways India could “weaponise” water: orchestrating flash floods, delaying water releases, or dramatically reducing water supply.

Reuters reported earlier this week that India has expedited four hydropower projects since the suspension that were already under construction on the Chenab River — projects Pakistan opposes for fear of reduced water downstream. 

But practically, India isn’t able to divert all water supply yet because it doesn’t have the infrastructure to divert or store the massive amounts of water flowing into Pakistan.

To understand how exactly the suspension will play out, I reached out to Ghasharib Shaokat, the Karachi-based head of product at data-analysis firm Pakistan Agriculture Research.

“The implications of this will be seen five to seven years from now,” Shaokat told me. “It's not something they can do in the next six months.”

This would require not only impressive feats of engineering and construction in mountainous areas, but also side-stepping legal battles (Pakistan is already preparing one). 

But the impact of even delaying the flow of water could spell disaster for Pakistani farmers almost immediately, said Haq. 

“Any disruption in river flow, whether from delayed releases or reduced volumes, can jeopardize yields within a single cropping season,” said Haq. “This is especially critical in Punjab and Sindh, where the timing and reliability of canal water define the entire agricultural calendar.”

What farmers are worried about

Haq is currently in Khall, Pakistan conducting river ethnographies and surveys in various parts of the Indus Basin in Pakistan, especially focusing on communities directly affected by disruption in river flows from India. 

His preliminary findings show farmers are extremely concerned about depleted water tables, and irregular irrigation in areas where they rely on canal systems.

When asking farmers about the potential impact of the IWT suspension, Haq summarises their concerns that any disruption of the current flow on crops would be “immediate and severe.” 

Rice, for instance, needs to be submerged for the first 30 days, and reduced water could “have devastating impacts in the next cropping cycle,” said Haq, while water flow is crucial for maize to mature, requiring constant irrigation. 

If these crops are impacted, Haq said, there will be a ripple effect, especially in rural economies.

Daily wage labourers who plant and harvest crops, truck drivers transporting crops to markets and mills, processing plants like sugar mills and textile factories, and of course, food vendors, will all be impacted. Disruption in food supply would have the wider impact of unpredictable pricing, impacting both vendors and households. 

“A water shortage can quickly turn into an economic and humanitarian crisis,” said Haq. 

With all eyes on the border region, my colleagues at Context will continue to report on the impact on the most affected people.