Virginia vote could be dress rehearsal for 2024 abortion battle

• State seen as bellwether heading into 2024
• Democrats bank on abortion driving votes
• Mixed landscape in U.S. since Roe v. Wade overturned

MANASSAS, Virginia - State elections in Virginia next week could offer an early preview of how abortion rights will play in the 2024 national elections with the ballot offering insights into how the main parties will position themselves and clues as to how voters may react.

The outcome could also have far-reaching consequences for reproductive health in the only southern state that hasn't enacted an abortion ban in the wake of last year's momentous decision by the Supreme Court to overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling that had legalized abortion nationwide.

Since then, many U.S. states have sought to enshrine or curtail abortion rights in their constitutions and laws.

In Virginia, Republicans are campaigning on a platform to impose new limits on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with some exceptions, if they take control of the state legislature after the Nov. 7 elections.

Democrats are using this to mobilize activists on what was one of the defining issues of the midterm elections last year.

Analysts have pointed to the Supreme Court decision and ensuing backlash as critical factors in the Democrats' ability to stave off a Republican "red wave" in the midterms.

The Virginia state campaigns may provide clues as to how those issues will play when Americans vote for the presidency and Congress next year.       

"What happens in Virginia will be a testament to what we see in '24," said Kimberly Pope Adams, a Democratic candidate for the house in a district south of the state capital Richmond.        

Both Virginia legislative chambers are up for grabs. Democrats hold a narrow majority in the state Senate, and Republicans have a slim majority in the House of Delegates.

Republicans, who lost the White House and control of the U.S. Senate after the 2020 elections, say the party's abortion pitch in Virginia could provide a roadmap for handling the issue in 2024.

"We absolutely see it as a test case," said Billy Valentine, vice president of political affairs for Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, an anti-abortion advocacy group.

"The whole country will be watching Virginia (as) a bellwether going into 2024 and the whole world watches the United States."

Abortion options narrowing 

Since the Supreme Court decision, more than 20 states have introduced restrictions on abortion, including North Carolina, South Carolina, and West Virginia – all states that border or are close to Virginia.

"Even into the Midwest, people are actually coming to Virginia to get care," said Tarina Keene, executive director of REPRO Rising Virginia, a pro-choice advocacy group.

Under current Virginia law, abortion is permitted up to about the third trimester of pregnancy. After that, abortions are allowed if three doctors attest that the woman's health would be in danger if the pregnancy was carried to term.

Governor Glenn Youngkin and Republican candidates he is supporting are pushing for restrictions after 15 weeks, with exceptions for rape, incest, and if the health of the mother is endangered. The ramifications of such a change could extend beyond Virginia

After a ban on abortions after 12 weeks took effect in July in North Carolina, the number of facility-based abortions dropped by 1,310 – or 31% - compared to June, according to a study released in October by the Guttmacher Institute, an abortion rights research group.

Isaac Maddow-Zimet, a researcher at Guttmacher, said it was already difficult to get an abortion in the southeast.

"Those options are narrowing more and more – particularly for people who are at later gestational durations," he said.

Pope Adams, the Democratic candidate, has talked on the campaign trail about a miscarriage she had 16 years ago to illustrate the importance of reproductive rights.

She said that under Republican proposals she might have been compelled to continue carrying a non-viable fetus because of their push to ban drugs used in the post-miscarriage procedure dilation and curettage.

"My miscarriage was at 12 weeks – that is not the case for everyone," she told Context.

"And if my miscarriage had happened (at) 20 weeks or beyond, I can't imagine having to be in a position where someone else dictates how I feel, how I grieve."

The campaign of Kim Taylor, Pope Adams' opponent, did not respond to interview requests.

Zack Roday, coordinated campaign director for Spirit of Virginia, Youngkin's political action committee (PAC), said abortion was an important issue but voters were also concerned with public safety, education, and the rising cost of living.

"Democrats have one issue, one issue only, and they've got no governing agenda, no vision, no plan – nothing they're offering voters," he said.

Republican state Senator Siobhan Dunnavant, an obstetrics and gynecology doctor who represents a Richmond-area district, said political extremes make compromise difficult.

Dunnavant supports the 15-week limit but with exceptions for rape, incest, life of the mother, and in cases of severe fetal anomalies.

"My practical, pragmatic side will tell you that neither extreme is ever going to succeed, but there's a majority of people (who) have a reasonable, common-sense position on this," she said.

Schuyler VanValkenburg, Dunnavant's opponent, said access to abortion is the number one issue he's been hearing about.

"The consensus position is not attempts to ban abortion," he said. "The consensus position is what we have."

A Washington Post-Schar School poll released in October found respondents were evenly divided on Youngkin's 15-week proposal, with 46% of registered voters in the state saying they would support changing the law in that way and 47% opposed. Other polls have shown a bigger gap in favor of the status quo.

'Core component'

Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison said reproductive rights would be "decimated" in Virginia if Republicans take control of the state legislature.

"It's definitely going to be a core component of the 2024 races," Harrison said following a campaign event on a drizzly October day in Manassas, about an hour's drive from Washington, D.C.

Josh Thomas, a Democratic candidate in one of the most competitive House races, was knocking on doors in a nearby neighborhood to gauge levels of support.

"Any issue that's on your mind this election?" Thomas asked Vannessa Maldonado, a special education teacher.

"That's important to me – access for other people for abortion (and) reproductive health care," the 33-year-old said, glancing at the campaign literature Thomas had just given her.

After the exchange, Maldonado told Context that the issue has moved "backwards" since the Supreme Court decision - but predicted things would soon swing back.

"Women are pissed," she said. "You're not going to do this to us."

Virginia Republicans, acutely conscious of the midterm backlash, have largely come together around what they say is Youngkin's moderate compromise on abortion.

John Stirrup, Thomas' Republican opponent, said earlier this year he would favor a "total ban" on abortion but he later walked back those comments to support a 15-week proposal.

Stirrup's campaign did not respond to interview requests.

Spirit of Virginia released a 30-second ad in October promoting the governor's "common sense" position. Roday, of the governor's PAC, said the aim is to lay out the Republican position clearly.

"It's an important issue and especially when there's so much fear-mongering and outright lies, you have to correct the record and so we made that determination: we were not going to repeat 2022."

(Reporting by David Sherfinski; Editing by Clar Ni Chonghaile.)