In Data: How will Hispanic voters shape election?

BOGOTA - As Americans head to the polls in a razor-thin contest, both Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump have been courting Hispanic voters, the fastest-growing segment of the U.S. electorate.

Hispanics make up a record-high 14.7% of eligible voters this election, up from 7.4% in 2000, and the number eligible to cast their vote today totals 36.2 million - a potentially decisive demographic.

Many Hispanic voters have parents or grandparents who migrated to the United States from Latin America, mainly from Mexico and Central America.

The vast majority of Hispanics in the United States are U.S. citizens, including people born in the country.

In the final days before the Nov. 5 election both candidates held events in the two swing states of Nevada and Arizona. The latter boasts the largest Latino population of any swing state.

Hispanic voters, have traditionally leaned heavily Democratic in most presidential elections since the 1970s, but Trump has made significant inroads and is doing well with Hispanics, opinion polls showed.

Democrat Joe Biden won the Hispanic vote by 24 points in 2020, so Harris' 14 point lead among registered Hispanic voters in October, should it hold through election day, would signal a gain for Trump.

But experts say predicting the Hispanic vote is particularly hard in 2024 because they skew younger than the rest of the electorate, so a larger share are first-time voters.

Hispanics have not turned out in large numbers in past elections so it is hard to predict how many will vote this time.

Early voting data for this election suggest a similar trend.

Nearly 65 million people have already voted early with Hispanics accounting for 2.4% of the total votes cast, significantly trailing behind Black and white voters, according to data as of Oct. 31 from the University of Florida.

In October this year, Trump had the support of 37% of registered Hispanic voters up from 30% in 2020, while Democrats have lost ground. In October, Harris' share of Hispanic voters was at 51%, compared with Biden's 54% in October 2020.

The shift and Trump's gain with Hispanics can partly be explained by frustrations over the economy, along with concerns over a shortage of affordable housing.

The economy ranks as a top election issue among many voters, including a growing number of Latinos.

Lower-than-average incomes among Hispanics left them more vulnerable to the surge in U.S. inflation in 2021 and 2022 that raised the cost of living, including food and fuel bills.

The hangover from high prices has proven to be a thorn in the side of Harris, and polls consistently show voters prefer Trump's economic policy proposals.

Many Hispanics supporting Trump feel they have been worse off under a Biden-Harris administration and will be better off with Trump in the White House - a perception Trump has campaigned on throughout the election race.

Trump has particularly gained support among Hispanic men, and they may prove to be especially important in this election.

While Harris leads Trump among Hispanic voters overall, polls show Trump has nearly erased Democrats' longstanding advantage among Hispanic men.

Trump's improved standing with male voters was driven in part by his gains among Hispanic men.

Trump now trails Harris by just 2 percentage points among Hispanic men - 44% to 46% - compared with his 16-point deficit to Biden at the same point in 2020.

(Reporting by Anastasia Moloney and Diana Baptista; Editing by Jon Hemming.)