Ahead of COP30, can national climate plans deliver?

Sir David King is the chair of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group (CCAG).

Current geopolitical events show us one thing: governments must act rapidly and decisively in the face of crisis. From wars to financial upheaval, history has taught us there is no space for indecision, delay or delusion in such moments. But have we truly learnt this lesson? As we approach the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement, I fear we have not.

With the 1.5°C threshold now passed it is clear that there is no remaining carbon budget. The greenhouse gas level in the atmosphere is already too high to ensure a manageable future for humanity.

Governments preparing to submit and enact updated climate goals – Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – ahead of COP30 in Brazil cannot ignore this. Yet national and international economies still operate under the illusion that a future-facing economy can coexist with continued investment in fossil fuels. 

Each year, $7 trillion is spent globally on subsidising the fossil fuel industry – more than is invested in education. This ongoing support is not only dangerously short-sighted; it actively undermines future economic and social prosperity.

The Climate Crisis Advisory Group’s latest report shows why, when treated as strategic investment roadmaps, NDCs will lead governments to unlock powerful outcomes – from innovation to healthier populations. Strategic, well-designed NDCs embedded into national development strategies can and should serve each nation’s interests. 

But first, we must see through the fog of fossil fuel delusion. These benefits cannot be realised while we continue to prop up polluting industries. Redirecting the trillions spent on fossil fuel subsidies could transform the global climate finance landscape. Public and private funds, used wisely, can accelerate investment in clean energy, electrified transport, sustainable agriculture, and more. 

With the right policies, NDCs become engines of green industrial strategy. That means investing in the skills, training and technologies needed to grow a thriving green workforce, creating millions of good jobs while reducing unemployment and inequality.

As the impacts of climate change intensify – from record-breaking wildfires to severe floods and prolonged droughts – resilience can no longer be an afterthought. It must be a core pillar of climate planning.

When designed with communities in mind, NDCs are a powerful tool for adaptation. That includes not just hard infrastructure like flood defences, but the social and institutional systems that help societies withstand disruption.

Most importantly, resilience must be local. National, regional and local governments must empower Indigenous and frontline communities who have the deepest understanding of their ecosystems and develop innovative ways to protect them. Their leadership is essential to shaping solutions that are effective, just and enduring.

Fair and just energy transition

Any credible path forward must include a just transition – one that supports the people and places most affected by economic change. For communities reliant on fossil fuel industries, the fear of being left behind is real.

That’s why NDCs must be people-centred. They should set out not just emissions targets but clear policies for retraining, economic diversification and access to affordable energy. Clean energy deployment should prioritise historically underserved regions, helping to reverse long-standing inequalities.

Done right, the clean energy transition can cut emissions and build fairer, more inclusive economies.

To truly deliver on the promise of NDCs, policymakers must adopt a comprehensive, integrated strategy – one that drives deep emissions cuts, scales carbon removal, and builds resilience to increasingly extreme weather.

Governments should focus on the four R’s identified in the Climate Crisis Advisory Group’s 4R Planet Strategy: Reduce, Remove, Repair, and Resilience. These are not abstract ideals – they are the practical foundations of a liveable, secure and prosperous future.

As we look ahead to COP30, the message could not be clearer: governments, financiers and businesses must bring these solutions into sharp focus.

We know humanity is capable of acting with urgency. Now we must prove it.