Syrian businesses dare to dream after Trump vow on sanctions

• Trump plans to lift sanctions on Syria
• Syrians celebrate in hope of economic gains 
• Return of expats seen boosting consumer demand

DAMASCUS - As word of President Donald Trump's pledge to lift sanctions spread, the streets of Damascus began to echo with the sound of fireworks, gunfire and car horns as Syrians celebrated the prospect of an end to decades of financial isolation.

Small shop owners dreamt of fresh stock to fill their depleted shelves and aid workers hoped they might finally tackle the blanket of rubble that smothers Syria's big cities.

We have to wait, it is so early,” said one store owner, beaming with joy. “We are optimistic, but we have to wait.”

Another shopkeeper echoed his optimism, saying: "This will make a huge difference, life will be cheaper.”

Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani said on X that the change marked a "new start" in Syria's path to reconstruction.

Yet the morning after the celebratory night before, caution somewhat tempered the hopes of many small business owners who are as wary as they are desperate for a new era after 13 years of civil war and decades of brutal rule by the Assad family.

International sanctions had cut off Syria from the global financial system since the civil war started in 2011. The country has faced restrictions since being deemed a state sponsor of terrorism by the U.S. in 1979.

Former strongman Bashar al-Assad was ousted last December by Islamist rebels led by now president Ahmed al-Sharaa, who has pursued free-market policies and shifted from the state-led model adopted during five decades of Assad family rule.

Abou Karam, a 50-year-old paint seller with a shop in central Damascus, said it was too soon to celebrate but he was optimistic about the future.

"We have not made any moves yet, we are waiting," he said in his dimly lit, sparsely stocked store. "Our industry was monopolised by a few individuals, that is going to change."

He expects a flood of imports to drive prices down, spurring people to buy more, boosting his company.

The owner of a nearby money exchange store was also hopeful.

"It is excellent news," he said.

With an unlit cigarette in hand, the money changer said the removal of sanctions would make it easier for him to get foreign currency and allow his company to have a presence abroad.

"Sending money from abroad will be as easy and as cheap as sending money internally," he said.  “The first people who will feel the difference are workers."   

Big prospects, big needs

Trump's decision will be felt well beyond the world of foreign investment and trade.

It would also clear the way for greater engagement by humanitarian organisations - vital in a country where many cities are reduced to rubble and more than 90% of Syria's 23 million people live below the poverty line, U.N. agencies say.

Official Syrian data shows the economy more than halved in size between 2010 and 2022.

Even this severe drop was likely an underestimate, according to the World Bank.

Its own calculations - using night-time light emissions, a proxy for overall economic activity - indicated a far sharper contraction of 84% between 2010 and 2023.

World Bank data estimates Syria's economy is worth about $21 billion - roughly on a par with Albania and Armenia, each home to fewer than 3 million inhabitants.

Already, since Assad's ousting, hopes had been rising of an economic rebirth - in February, tech entrepreneurs held the first free and open tech conference in Damascus in decades - but sanctions were seen as a major stumbling block.

Return home

Although Trump has yet to give a timeline for lifting the sanctions, many Syrians are already banking on the fallout.

Furniture store owner Abed al-Hadi said he would increase his orders of raw materials in the hope that more expats would now opt to head home.

During the civil war, millions of Syrians fled to neighbouring countries, Turkey first and foremost, with many also risking the dangerous sea route to Europe.

"People are going to return, and they will need furniture to rebuild their homes," said 50-year-old al-Hadi, relishing the prospect of more consumer choice and financial freedom.

"Before, we could only deal with Asia, although the European markets have essential products that we cannot find anywhere else," he said.

The European Union and Britain have also lifted some sanctions in recent months.

But al-Hadi plans to wait a month before making any major business decisions given the fragile nature of daily life.

Some armed groups have yet to turn in their weapons, sectarian violence has left minorities fearful and Israel - which calls Sharaa a jihadist - has bombed Syria repeatedly.

But for one phone store owner in Damascus, the good news outweighed the uncertainty.

The businessman, who did not want to give his name, said he had been slowly increasing his stock since Assad's fall but now wanted to pick up the pace - and had already placed new orders in the belief that the genie was now out of the bottle.

"Whatever happens happens," he said. "We have been denied [access to the world] for decades."

(Reporting by Nazih Osseiran; Editing by Clar Ni Chonghaile and Lyndsay Griffiths.)