How effective are early warning systems when disasters strike?

• Early warnings seen as critical during 2024's disasters
• Half the world does not have access to adequate warning systems
• Climate change-related disasters cost economies billions

LONDON - After more than 200 people were killed in flash floods in eastern Spain, angry residents threw mud at the visiting king and hundreds of people took to the streets to protest poor preparation and warnings that came too late for many.

Artificial intelligence and other tech advances have made weather forecasting more accurate, but experts say effective communication of warnings is still not adequate, especially as life-threatening floods and storms become more common because of the climate emergency.

The heavy human and financial cost of the flooding across Europe, back-to-back hurricanes in the United States and repeated typhoons in Asia have prompted a renewed global focus on the need for, and importance of, early warning systems.

But how effective are existing early warning systems or EWS, and what more needs to be done to prepare for an even more volatile future?

What are EWS?

EWS are used by governments, local authorities, weather agencies, and emergency services to draw up evacuation plans and play a role in coordinating response efforts during a disaster.

They help communities and regions prepare for and respond to natural disasters, pandemics, and other emergencies.

The United States and Japan, both with a long history of extreme weather and natural disasters, have emerged as world leaders in deploying effective EWS, reaching millions of people with life-saving alerts in minutes.

In preparation for Hurricane Helene, for example, the United States' Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) sent out mandatory evacuation orders to residents living in areas directly in the hurricane's path.

EWS can take many forms, from sirens to alerts, to vibrations on portable devices, and are generally authorised by national weather organisations or the government.

The UK's emergency alert system was tested for the first time in April 2023. A text message was sent to mobile phones after a 10-second-long siren sounded.

Similar to the UK, France's EWS consists of a text, followed by a short and shrill sound.

Australia's early warning system, often deployed in response to bushfires and wildfires, consists of phone calls and voice messages sent to landlines, and texts to mobile devices.

EWS have rapidly developed this century due to advances in modern technology, but also because of the increasing toll of climate change-induced disasters.

From 1970 to 2021, more than two million deaths were attributed to extreme weather events that were amplified by global warming, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

In 2020 alone, an estimated 30 million people were displaced because of weather-related disasters and campaigners say the need for EWS has never been clearer.

The WMO says improved early warnings and coordinated disaster management have helped mitigate the deadly impact of disasters.

Just 24 hours' notice of incoming danger can reduce subsequent economic damage by 30%, it said.

In October 2020, during severe flooding across central Vietnam, around 1.3 million people were safely evacuated thanks to the government's early warning systems, which involved the use of loudspeakers, SMS texts, and emergency TV broadcast.

In 2023, enhanced early warning systems helped mitigate the damage from Cyclone Freddy in Mozambique. The storm's damages were estimated at around $500 million, 83% less than the $3 billion worth of losses caused by Cyclone Idai in 2019.

Do all countries have early warning systems?

According to the U.N. Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, only half of the world is covered by effective early warning systems, with small island states and developing countries left far behind. 

Developing countries experienced 60% of all economic losses caused by climate shocks and extreme weather between 1970 and 2021, it said.

In Africa, almost 60% of the continent's 1.2 billion people are not protected by early warning systems. This can have fatal consequences.

In September last year, a lack of early warning systems and evacuation planning led to the deaths of more than 4,000 people during flash floods in Libya – economic losses were estimated at $1.8 billion.

Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa all use urgent SMS messages in the event of emergencies. Governments and NGOs are working to bring early warning systems to pastoral and nomadic communities across West Africa's Sahel region.

In 2018, the European Union made it mandatory for member states to implement modern public warning systems to alert the public of threats to safety.

Italy's public alert system began operating in February earlier this year. Mobile users first hear a unique sound, which is followed by a text. Until the message is opened, other mobile functions are temporarily blocked.

In the event of military emergencies other countries like Greece, Latvia, and Romania regularly test air raid sirens. Sirens are also used for natural disaster warnings.

In 2023, a report by the World Meteorological Organization found that the number of countries with early warning systems had doubled since 2015.

What is being done to improve EWS?

Japan has shared its expertise with Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan - which have recently seen an increase in flash floods and landslides - and provided millions of dollars in funding to help them develop EWS.

In 2022, U.N. head Antonio Guterres launched the Early Warnings for All initiative, aiming for every person on earth to be protected by early warning systems by 2027.

The initiative called for $3.1 billion in investments between 2023 and 2027, which is equivalent to $0.50 per person per year.

A UN report on the development of EWS found that although the world is at it's "highest levels of reported early warning coverage since 2015," disaster impact continues to have a disproportionate impact on lower-income countries.

(Reporting by Noah Anthony Enahoro; Editing by Clar Ni Chonghaile and Ana Nicolaci da Costa.)