At COP29, plan to stop Caspian Sea waters receding falls short

• Caspian Sea's future hangs in the balance as waters recede
• COP29 host Azerbaijan hopes to craft a plan to save it
• Iran's buy-in is crucial but in doubt

LONDON - The alarming decline of the Caspian Sea is at the top of the agenda at this year's U.N. climate summit in Baku, with host nation Azerbaijan hoping to forge a regional plan to tackle the problem, which would rely on Iran to take action.

The Caspian Sea has lost 1.5 m (5 feet) of water in the past 25 years, scientists say, a significant drop that increases salinity levels and threatens plants and animals. At this rate, experts say it could lose another 14 m this century.

Azerbaijan has said it hopes to draw up a plan to manage the water decline with countries that share its coastline - Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran. Iran is critical in this effort given it is among the world's top 10 polluters and has done little over the past decade to address climate change, which is helping to fuel the Caspian Sea's decline.

Caspian states also have to navigate a challenging geopolitical environment, given the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as uncertainty around the climate policies of Donald Trump's incoming administration.

"Without urgent action, including global action to slash greenhouse gas emissions, we could see as many as five million people displaced from the Caspian basin by mid-century," Inger Andersen, the executive director of the UN Environment Programme said in an event dedicated to the Caspian Sea at COP29.

"This moment calls for bold, ambitious action."

With a surface area of about 386,400 square km (149,200 square miles), roughly the size of Japan, the Caspian Sea has historically been an important resource for the region.

It is a key source of drinking water, fishing and farming for local communities, as well as an important oil and gas production area and a tourism hub. The sea is also home to the largest population of sturgeon fish, which is used to produce Beluga and Persian caviar, one of Iran's top exports.

Underscoring the urgency of the problem, University of Oulu associate professor Ali Torabi Haghighi said as Caspian waters recede, people living nearby could face serious health risks.

"Exposed lake beds release dust filled with toxic pollutants, salts and residues from oil extraction leading to respiratory issues like asthma, bronchitis and chronic lung disease," said Haghighi, who teaches water resource management at the Finnish university.

He also highlighted potential mental health issues such as depression, stress, and anxiety from "the economic challenges and loss of livelihoods".

Researchers have pointed to the experience of the Aral Sea on the border of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan as a forewarning. The construction of dams on feeder rivers and over-irrigation led to the world's fourth largest lake to all but vanishing, causing health problems and prompting local people to emigrate.

Research shows human activity, including dam construction, pollution and excessive oil and gas extraction have caused the Caspian Sea to shrink, as temperatures rise and water inflows slow.

The Caspian's surface temperature has risen by 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) in recent decades, according to the American Geophysical Society, while water flow into the Caspian Sea is being hampered by the construction of dams.

There are 40 dams on Russia's River Volga, which provides some 80% of the Caspian Sea's water, and there are plans for the construction of another 20 dams, according to research by the University of Tehran.

"Climate change intensifies this effect by increasing temperatures, reducing humidity and changing rainfall patterns, all of which boost evaporation and lower water levels," Haghighi said.

Diplomacy needed

Experts said diplomacy will be key in any talks about the Caspian Sea given the challenging geopolitical backdrop to the climate summit and the importance of getting Iran on board for any plan to tackle the water problem in the Caspian Sea.

"Azerbaijan will need solid diplomatic skills to build consensus on issues like the crisis in the Caspian Sea," said Ruth Townend, a senior research fellow at Chatham House.

However, environment campaigners have questioned Azerbaijan's commitment to tackling climate change given that President Ilham Aliyev has described oil and gas as a "gift of God" and the country plans to expand fossil fuel production.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian had been expected to attend COP29, but his plans were scrapped due to Israel's presence at the summit and the close diplomatic ties between Israel and host country Azerbaijan, Iranian media reports said.

Tensions between arch-rivals Israel and Iran have risen in recent months amid a wider escalation of the war in Gaza.

Some experts who had hoped the presence of Pezeshkian at COP29 would signal Iran may be finally ready to discuss climate action.

Instead, Iran sent Shina Ansari, the recently appointed head of Iran's Department of Environment, and she reiterated the line of previous governments. In a speech in Baku last week, she said U.S. economic sanctions and the war in Gaza were the reasons Iran was not taking steps to address climate change.

"One of the crucial steps in combating climate change is the removal of unilateral and illegal sanctions," she said.

At a separate panel, Ansari highlighted the importance of regional cooperation on the Caspian Sea, but experts said they were underwhelmed.

"There was no significant plan offered on climate change or the sea. Unfortunately, we didn't witness anything different said by this administration in comparison to the previous one," said Amir Aghakouchak, a professor of environmental engineering at the University of California, Irvine.

The Caspian Sea is critical for Iran, where millions of people in the north of the country rely on the sea for goods and income. It also helps regulate the region's climate and much-needed rain and humidity.

The sea's falling water levels have hit biodiversity, agriculture and tourism in northern Iran, according to a report by the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based think tank. 

Along with Yemen and Eritrea, Iran is the only country that has not ratified the Paris Agreement to curb climate change by limiting global temperatures. The last time Iran pledged to reduce emissions was in 2015, when it submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution, or climate change commitments, although those remain unfulfilled.

Elnur Safarov, a senior scientific researcher from the Institute of Geography at Azerbaijan's Ministry of Science and Education, told Context that more precise information about a plan for the Caspian Sea would be known after this month's U.N. climate talks.

"If nothing happens to improve conditions, the negative consequences of such a sharp drop in the Caspian Sea level could become even more serious in the future," said Safarov.

(Reporting by Sanam Mahoozi; Editing by Jon Hemming and Ana Nicolaci da Costa.)