In data: A decade of irregular migration to Europe

• Key routes remain active throughout decade 
• Syrian arrivals drop in 2025 
• Record migrant deaths in 2024 

LONDON - Despite migration dominating European political debate over the last decade, the number of irregular arrivals to the European Union has remained significantly lower than the peak of 2015, when a million people arrived in the bloc.

Overall, numbers have not come close since, but the main irregular routes to Europe have remained busy, with some seeing similar or even higher activity than 10 years ago. 

Efforts to stopper the most popular entryways to Europe in 2015, across Turkey's land border and through the Balkans, or across the Mediterranean Sea to Greece, saw the Central crossing from North Africa to Italy emerge as the busiest route. 

It has remained the most active route throughout the decade.

Overall arrivals dropped during the COVID-19 pandemic, but soon picked up again in 2021, reaching the first highs in 2023 since 2016.

But arrivals dropped again in 2024, down by 38%.

Data from the first six months of 2025 suggest the downward trend is continuing, although numbers on the central route have started to increase after dropping in 2024.     

Syrians drive trends

Syrians fleeing more than a decade of violence were, until this year, the top nationality crossing irregularly to Europe and lodging asylum applications in the EU. 

But the toppling of President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 caused a dramatic drop in the number of Syrians entering Europe illegally and this is beginning to affect decades-long asylum trends.       

This year, Venezuelans have replaced Syrians as the top nationality applying for asylum and now Spain, Italy and France have become the most popular destinations for asylum seekers. Previously, Germany received the most applications.

Syrians have typically been granted asylum or subsidiary protection in 90% of cases, but most EU countries paused the processing of Syrian applications at the end of 2024, so fewer decisions are being made, meaning the total rate of successful asylum applications in the EU has fallen to its lowest level outside the COVID pandemic. 

In May, the rate of positive decisions for asylum applications was 24%, compared to rates of more than 50% in 2023 and 2024. 

Record deaths 

The Mediterranean is considered the deadliest migration route in the world, with the central corridor between North Africa and Italy recording the most deaths of any major migration route over the last decade. 

While deaths on the Mediterranean dropped in 2024 to 2,573  compared to 3,155 recorded in 2023 - the highest number since 2017 - the death rate increased, according to the IOM. 

Deaths on routes through Europe and from West Africa to the Canary Islands reached record numbers in 2024.

(Reporting by Beatrice Tridimas; editing by Lyndsay Griffiths)