As COP30 discusses end of fossil fuels, are renewables ready?

• Transition to clean energy seen as inevitable
• World falling short on tripling renewables by 2030
• Developing countries need finance, data to go green

BELEM, Brazil - The message could not have been clearer as protesters carried coffins labelled oil, coal and gas through Belém while negotiators met in the Amazonian city for the United Nations COP30 climate summit.

It may be too early to declare the end of the fossil fuel era, but up to 80 countries are demanding a concrete plan to move away from polluting power at the climate summit.

Along with the political challenge of getting the 195 countries, including oil producers, at COP30 to agree to such a plan, there are practical obstacles to weaning the world off oil and gas, especially as electricity demand is set to soar from the surge in artificial intelligence and population growth.

Although renewable power is expanding fast, the world is not on track to triple clean energy by 2030, a target set at COP28 in Dubai two years ago, when countries agreed for the first time on "transitioning away from fossil fuels".

And the expansion is not happening quickly enough in the countries that need clean power most.

Developing nations say they require more money to switch to clean power and join the "unstoppable" renewables revolution that could create 8,000 jobs a day over the next decade, said Bruce Douglas, chief executive of the Brussels-based Global Renewables Alliance.

"The gap is getting smaller, (but) we need a significant increase in investment and deployment.... The targets are great, but targets are not turbines and pledges are not panels," Douglas said in an interview at COP30.

Governments need to put in place ambitious climate plans to give investors confidence in projects that would provide energy-poor citizens with power and cut mortality rates from air pollution caused by burning fossil fuels, Douglas said.

Access to affordable capital is key.

"Capital is flowing in record amounts year-on-year, but it's not happening in those markets that need it most," Douglas said.

Only about 17% of investment in clean energy goes to developing and emerging economies, he said, with that number falling to about 4% in Africa, where some 620 million people lack stable and affordable access to energy.

Urielle Nsenda, a negotiator for the Democratic Republic of Congo, said developing countries like hers also need technical support to design renewable projects.

"Another problem facing countries in Africa is that we don't have enough data on the sector to help us identify and build suitable projects for national circumstances," she told Context in Belém. 

For example, the DRC has significant hydropower energy potential, according to the International Energy Agency, while other African countries are focusing on solar power to boost their renewable capacity.

"The energy transition requires us to adapt our infrastructure," Nsenda said. "We don't want to carry the burden alone."

Priced out

Douglas said finance from richer governments can be used to provide subsidies to communities to invest in solar, and larger-scale projects often require measures to reduce the risk of financial losses and bring down the cost of investments.

"In many cases the perceived risk is higher than the actual risk, so default rates for some of those countries are lower than they are using to price the interest rates," he said.

Douglas also called for an end to more than $1 trillion of fossil fuel subsidies worldwide and policies to ensure this does not penalise the most vulnerable by exposing them to higher electricity bills.

"So you build the renewables at the same time as you are transitioning away from fossil fuels," he said.

A draft of a possible deal for the COP30 talks, drawn up by host Brazil, contains a line urging all parties to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. 

Developing countries that produce gas, oil and coal are concerned about the effect of the transition on workers and industries as well as on consumers who might face higher costs.

After Nigeria abolished fuel subsidies as part of a package of economic reforms in 2023, petrol prices tripled, driving nationwide protests last year.

Nigeria aims to reduce its dependence on oil and generate 30% of its energy from renewables by 2030 as well as develop local manufacturing capacity.

While local production for renewable energy is growing, manufacturers face competition from Asian powerhouses, led by China, that dominate the global solar supply chain with cheaper, mass-produced panels.

"The developed world must phase out their reliance on fossil fuels fast, while allowing developing countries a longer timeline and the necessary support, like technology and financing, to do the same," Prince Papa, Africa campaigner for the global Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative (FFNPTI), told Context ahead of the COP30 talks.

One stumbling block on the path to a global clean energy transition is the stance of U.S. President Donald Trump's administration, which has blocked renewable projects at home and is pushing other countries to follow suit.

But Douglas said global momentum would prevail.

"There are going to be winners and losers, and the losers may well be those consumers in the United States who could face increased power prices, especially given increased demand from data centres and AI," he said.

(Reporting by Clar Ni Chonghaile. Editing by Jack Graham and Ellen Wulfhorst.)