Will UK-France migrant swap deal stop the small boats?

LONDON - With soaring numbers of migrants arriving in Britain on small boats from France, the government is testing a new 'one in, one out' scheme to crack down on the illegal crossings.

However the first deportations - due to start Monday - were cancelled after last-minute legal challenges, according to media reports.

More than 31,000 people have crossed the Channel illegally in small boats this year, a 38% rise on the same period in 2024. (https://migrantdata.uk/small-boat-arrivals/)

The new scheme will allow Britain to detain people arriving this way and send them back to France.

In return, Britain will accept an equal number of asylum seekers who apply from France through a new legal route.

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer is under intense pressure to end small boat arrivals as populist Nigel Farage's anti-immigrant Reform UK party surges ahead in opinion polls.

How will it work?

Migrants in France wanting to come to Britain must apply for the new legal route online and will be subject to security checks.

Priority will be given to nationalities accounting for high numbers of Channel crossings and those most likely to be granted asylum.

Among these, preference will be given to people who have previously spent time in Britain and are therefore considered more likely to integrate.

After arriving in the UK, successful applicants will have three months to make an asylum claim.

Nationalities with currently high asylum recognition rates include Sudanese, Syrians and Eritreans.

However, anyone who has previously tried to make a small boat crossing will be barred from applying for the new scheme.

Contrary to widespread media reports, applicants do not have to have family links to the UK.

How will people be returned to France?

Britain started detaining migrants in early August shortly after striking the deal with France.

Under the treaty, Britain must make a request to return an individual within 14 days of their arrival.

France does not have to accept unaccompanied minors or people who pose a security threat.

Britain will pay for the flights of both the migrants it sends back to France and those it takes in return.

The government, which has said the experiment will start small, has not set any targets for the number of returns.

It is not clear how many recent arrivals have already been detained or how the authorities are choosing who to detain.

Doesn't the UK have to hear asylum claims?

Britain cannot refuse to hear asylum claims, but it can declare them inadmissible if the person has passed through a country en route to Britain that is considered safe.

This means asylum claims from people arriving from France can be declared inadmissible even if they have fled war or persecution in their home countries.

Some Mediterranean nations have opposed the 'one in, one out' deal, fearing France could decide to send returned migrants back to the countries through which they first entered Europe.

Will it work?

Britain says the scheme will help break the business model of organised crime gangs that facilitate the small boat crossings and will save lives.

More than 70 people died trying to cross last year, five times more than in the previous year.

Critics say the 'one in, one out' scheme is too limited to act as a deterrent, but Starmer's government says it is part of a wider plan that includes slapping sanctions on those accused of involvement in people smuggling and clamping down on migrants working illegally, particularly in the gig economy, which is perceived as a draw.

The government will also continue to work with other countries like Albania, Nigeria and Vietnam to take back nationals who have no right to stay.

Britain and France will jointly monitor and fine-tune the 'one in, one out' scheme during the pilot phase which runs until June 2026 before taking a long-term decision.

What's the wider background?

The arrival of people on small boats has been an increasing headache for successive British governments since 2018. France has previously refused to take people back.

"This is something Britain has been chasing since 2021," said Mihnea Cuibus, a researcher with the Migration Observatory based at Oxford University.

"It's diplomatically and politically a success for the government, but the big question now becomes logistics."

The previous government struck a deal with Rwanda to send asylum seekers there, but legal challenges stymied the scheme, which was scrapped by Starmer.

(Reporting by Emma Batha; Editing by Ellen Wulfhorst.)